Monday, May 8: If you've been wondering why summer hasn't particularly felt like summer in a while, there's a good chance the brewing Cyclone Mocha is to blame. Since it was identified last week, the system has been slowly gaining power over the Bay of Bengal, and it looks like it might fully intensify into a full-fledged cyclonic storm in a couple of days.
As of the India Meteorological Department's Monday morning bulletin, a cyclonic circulation lies over the Southeast Bay of Bengal adjoining the Andaman Sea, which will likely induce a low-pressure area to develop over the region by today (May 8).
From here, initial forecasts indicate rapid growth, intensifying into a depression by Tuesday (May 9) and then into a cyclonic storm while moving nearly northwards towards the central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea. According to the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), the probability of cyclogenesis will remain high over the next 4-5 days.
Cyclone could track towards Tamil Nadu, other models disagree
While states on the eastern coast should definitely begin preparing for severe weather due to Mocha, cyclone models disagree on the storm's path. IMD's GFS and ECMWF models point towards an initial northwestward movement, followed by the storm barrelling northeastward towards Bangladesh and Myanmar. The ECMWF track has shifted more westerly compared to previous forecasts of the system's movement.
Forecast path of cyclone Mocha (TWC Met Team)
Forecast path of cyclone Mocha
(TWC Met Team)
Meanwhile, the NCUM group of models showed that it could move towards Tamil Nadu's coast instead, before reemerging into the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea.
According to The Weather Channel's met team however, the system will most likely track northwards and make landfall on Myanmar. However, differing paths and strengths forecast by various cyclone models leads to a large amount of uncertainty in Mocha's behaviour.
Weather impacts on Indian states
Due to the storm's proximity, most of its brunt will be absorbed by the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, followed by some states lining our East Coast. Moderate rainfall will prevail over most places from May 8-12, IMD forecasts.
The Andaman region has already begun facing scattered bouts of heavy to very heavy rainfall (64.5 mm to 204.5 mm), which will continue affecting the area on May 8, 9 and 12. After that, TWC forecasts a barrage of strong winds (≧80 kmph) adorned with very heavy to extremely heavy rains (204.5 mm) to batter the islands as the cyclone forms around Wednesday and Thursday (May 10-11).
In addition, if the ECMWF forecast holds true, TWC's Met team reckons Odisha's coasts could also be in for an intense spot of rain in the coming days, especially around Saturday and Sunday (May 13-14). Kolkata and many northern districts of West Bengal such as Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Kalimpong, Alipurdar could also be in for light showers over the next 24 hours.
As for the country’s southern parts, officials have assured there is not much need for alarm. As of Monday morning, IMD officials have noted that Cyclone Mocha will likely have no significant impact on Andhra Pradesh or Tamil Nadu’s weather.
In view of the raging winds and impending downpour, fisherfolk, small ships, boats and trawlers have been vigorously advised not to venture into the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining part of the Andaman Sea from May 8 onwards. Furthermore, these areas' tourism, shipping and other offshore activities will have to be regulated until conditions improve.
For more information and detailed coverage of Cyclone Mocha's intensification, movement and impacts, follow The Weather Channel India.
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